The Worst Investment

With a $1.6 billion fishing economy at threatened, Alaskans know that Pebble mine is a bad investment for our state.  

With a world class hunting and fishing destination on the verge of being decimated, sportsmen and women know that tourism and fishing will continue to thrive and drive Bristol Bay if the fishery is simply left alone.  

With 14,000 jobs on the line, Americans know that Pebble is a project that only benefits the Canadian mining company, Northern Dynasty.  

Even without an economic feasibility study, investment companies increasingly recognize any financial stake in the Pebble proposal will never materialize and turn a profit, and will certainly never be approved by local people.  

Last week, a sixth major investor announced their divestment from Pebble’s parent company, Northern Dynasty Minerals.  

On March 31, 2020, Morgan Stanley filed a form 13F with the Securities and Exchange Commission reporting a reduction of 99.14 percent in its holdings in the proposed Bristol Bay copper and gold mine’s underfunded Canadian owner.  

Once the fourth largest institutional shareholder in Northern Dynasty, Morgan Stanley moved in this report to 57th on the list of all shareholders, reducing its position from 3,479,137 shares to just 29,749 shares. 

Morgan Stanley’s divestment from Northern Dynasty Minerals and the proposed Pebble mine is the sixth major company to walk away from the Canadian mining company with an incomplete and financially unviable mine plan.  

Review the history of Pebble’s investors walking away from the project over the course of the past decade below.  

invesestor history.png

Northern Dynasty Minerals’ dwindling investment partners are indicative of their failing financial status and lack of social license. Former Rio Tinto environment and permitting chief, Richard Borden, estimated that based on his independent economic analysis, the project as proposed would lose $3 billion and is almost certainly financially infeasible. 

These independent analyses make Pebble’s most recent promise of a revenue sharing program for Bristol Bay residents especially hollow. Fishing for public support among a community where nearly 80% have opposed the mine proposal for nearly a decade is a weak attempt to gain the appearance of a social license in Bristol Bay.  

Pebble continues to lose investors as the permitting process for the mine barrels forward. We expect to see a Final Environmental Impact Statement from the Army Corps of Engineers any day now, which will be followed by a Record of Decision – the official determination if Pebble receives its most important federal permit. If Pebble is granted this permit in 2020, CEO Tom Collier will get a $12.5 million bonus.  

Between the investors abandoning ship, the empty promises to local residents, and the greedy benefits that Pebble Limited Partnership individuals seek to gain, Pebble continues to show itself as the worst investment possible for investment firms, and certainly Alaskans.  

Knowing that the real gold lies in the salmon that have sustained and will continue to sustain the people of Bristol Bay for generations, Alaskans have said no for decades. Now, the investment community is joining them.